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Today’s Idea
We all like to think we see ourselves clearly. But the truth is stranger: most of us walk around convinced we’re above average (at intelligence, driving, leadership, honesty, generosity). Psychologists call this the Lake Wobegon Effect.
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The Lake Wobegon Effect
In the fictional town of Lake Wobegon, radio host Garrison Keillor famously joked that “all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.”
It was satire, but psychology revealed it was also uncomfortably accurate.
Study after study shows the same pattern:
90% of drivers believe they’re safer than average.
Most students believe they’ll outperform their peers.
Entrepreneurs consistently believe their ventures are less likely to fail than statistics suggest.
Doctors assume their clinical judgment is sharper than colleagues’.
Of course, mathematically, this is impossible.
By definition, half of people fall below the median. Yet the illusion persists across domains, cultures, and professions.
This is because self-perception is less about statistics and more about identity. To admit we’re “average” feels threatening as it clashes with the story we tell ourselves.
So the mind edits reality:
We spotlight our wins and let our failures fade.
We compare downward, not upward—measuring ourselves against people doing worse, not better.
We protect our ego by redefining the category—“I’m not the best driver, but I’m more careful than most.”
The Lake Wobegon Effect isn’t purely negative. A little inflated confidence can fuel persistence, helping us push through obstacles.
But unchecked, it blinds us to risks, closes us to feedback, and convinces us we’ve “arrived” when we’re still only halfway up the mountain.
How You Can Apply This
Seek disconfirming feedback. Ask colleagues or mentors not “how am I doing?” but “where am I most blind?” Specific negative feedback stings, but it’s what keeps growth alive.
Change your comparison set. Instead of looking down, look sideways or up. Compare against those who inspire you, not those who make you feel safe.
Separate identity from performance. Being “average” at something today doesn’t define you, it just marks your current position on the curve. Skill is fluid, not fixed.
Use confidence with humility. Believe in your capacity to improve, but hold enough doubt to stay open to correction.
What To Remember
Until next time,
— Quiet Moves